A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
