Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
